Most observers anticipate that Senator Kennedy will not take up H.R. 800 but will instead draft a “companion bill” with his name and the names of numerous co-sponsors. It is expected to be substantially the same as H.R. 800 but will have a Senate number (S.___). Senate staffers expect that Senator Kennedy plans to introduce his companion bill before the Easter Recess (beginning March 30) and hold one or two Committee hearings to consider the legislation.
While the committee would apparently like to report out a bill for Senate floor consideration before the Easter recess, there is very little chance that will happen. The Senate calendar is crowded with the Defense Supplemental, Stem Cell research, and the Budget Resolution, all of which will consume up considerable floor time in the weeks ahead. In addition, it is virtually certain that Republican Senators plan to offer various amendments during the Committee’s deliberations. This could extend the Committee’s work.
If the measure is passed in the Committee, it may or may not be dramatically different than the original bill. There is some discussion on the Hill indicating that Democrats may be willing to compromise on card-check and possibly even arbitration in order to bring the measure to the Senate floor. This would be a mere strategic move, and not an abandonment of those provisions. The intent would be to get to the Conference Committee (where differing House and Senate provisions of companion bills are debated and a single legislative vehicle agreed upon for both houses to vote consider). Labor’s supporters would likely attempt to re-insert the compromised provisions during the Conference debate.
After clearing the Committee, the bill is expected to face even more intense political maneuvering. First, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) would make a "Motion to Proceed" on the legislation. An objection would then be heard from the Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) or his designated representative. “Filibuster” would then be contemplated. This is a tactic by which one or more Senators continue debate indefinitely, until the Majority Leader decides to move to other legislation.
All indications are that the bill would be filibustered. In fact, the speculation currently is on who will conduct the filibuster, not whether one will take place or not.
Do not, however, prepare yourself for the spectacle of watching a hoarse Senator Michael Enzi (R-WY), teetering and swooning a la Jimmy Stewart in the 23rd hour of reciting the phone book. In 1975, the Senate Rules were amended to make the filibuster "invisible" -- that is, 41 Senators must simply express their intention to filibuster in order to kill consideration on a bill.
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